I studied all the content from the wiki and to be honest I was like OMG when I saw that problem. Should most of these formulas come intuitively? I am also unfamiliar with the different pages (20.10,20.20,...)
This was a ridiculously hard problem. Even with the examiner's report, that problem takes a while to figure out and I suspect it had a very low average score across the candidates who sat for that exam. In my judgment, that problem is an outlier and that's why I didn't specifically talk about it in the wiki or elsewhere.
One thing you had to know was that the UCAE from page 20.20 was a gross value. If you didn't, you were pretty much out of luck even if you understood all the MfAD material really well. There were also a few other reasons I didn't think this was a well constructed problem. Anyway, here's a link to my Excel solution. It isn't as neat and tidy as I would normally do because I wasn't planning to share it, but since you specifically asked...
If you get a problem where you aren't sure what to do, start by writing down any formulas that seem relevant. You would get credit for that. Then start doing calculations that use the given data. You never know where it's going to lead.
Once you get started, you may then see things more clearly but if not, you would at least get partial credit.
And pay attention to the point-value, 3.0 in this case. You generally have 240mins/70pts = 3.5 minutes per point. That means a little over 10 minutes, BUT calculation problems takes longer (sometimes twice as long) as an essay question worth the same number of points. So you could reasonably allow 20 minutes for a problem like this.
I'd say, however, that if you get totally lost and just don't feel like there's any way you could solve it, make sure you've written everything you can then cut your losses and move on. You can get 0-24% on 2 questions and still have a very good chance of passing.
Definitely don't let yourself get bogged down. If you are well prepared, you will know the answers to most of the other questions so you have to manage your time and not leave any easy questions unanswered.
Another tip:
If you want to practice this problem with different numbers, you can randomize the inputs with the Excel RAND() and RANDBETWEEN() functions.
I couldn't think of any wiki text I've read relates to c), can you please explain what is this about, which text is this referring to?
Also, apart from knowing apv(gross) for AR p20.20, and apv(ceded) for AR p20.10, can you list out other key information similar to this we need to know from the AR?
can you also confirm if UCAE is only case reserve, IBNR is excluded?
It's off the syllabus now - But honestly you can just make an educated guess since it's pretty intuitive.
Uhhh there's a lot to know and I can't go through the whole AR to list out what is important for you. I think if you go through the BA wiki and past questions you should have a good idea of what is important
UCAE from 20.20 is the discounted case + IBNR including PFaDs
Comments
This was a ridiculously hard problem. Even with the examiner's report, that problem takes a while to figure out and I suspect it had a very low average score across the candidates who sat for that exam. In my judgment, that problem is an outlier and that's why I didn't specifically talk about it in the wiki or elsewhere.
One thing you had to know was that the UCAE from page 20.20 was a gross value. If you didn't, you were pretty much out of luck even if you understood all the MfAD material really well. There were also a few other reasons I didn't think this was a well constructed problem. Anyway, here's a link to my Excel solution. It isn't as neat and tidy as I would normally do because I wasn't planning to share it, but since you specifically asked...
Tips on doing hard problems:
Another tip:
Hi,
I couldn't think of any wiki text I've read relates to c), can you please explain what is this about, which text is this referring to?
Also, apart from knowing apv(gross) for AR p20.20, and apv(ceded) for AR p20.10, can you list out other key information similar to this we need to know from the AR?
can you also confirm if UCAE is only case reserve, IBNR is excluded?
Thanks!
It's off the syllabus now - But honestly you can just make an educated guess since it's pretty intuitive.
Uhhh there's a lot to know and I can't go through the whole AR to list out what is important for you. I think if you go through the BA wiki and past questions you should have a good idea of what is important
UCAE from 20.20 is the discounted case + IBNR including PFaDs