Govt.FloodSolutions

Updates COMPLETE: (for Fall 2023) Chapter 1: Complete Chapter 2: Complete Chapter 3: Complete Chapter 5: Complete Chapter 6: Complete Chapter 7: Complete Chapter 8: Complete

Reading: “Adapting to Rising Flood Risks – An Analysis of Insurance Solutions for Canada,” August 2022, Section 1-3, 5-8

Author: Government of Canada Task Force on Flood Insurance and Relocation

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Study Tips

The sections of this reading for which you are responsible span roughly 45 out of the total 67 pages. There is a lot to cover and it will take significant time and effort to learn this material. Historically, flood questions have been heavily tested so even though we no longer have published exams as a guide, I think you can count on about 3.0 points on any given exam on the topic of flood insurance.

Here is a summary of the executive summary. You don't have to memorize this – it's just to give you a high-level understanding of the overall content.

• Flood frequency: Flooding is Canada's most frequent and costly disaster.
• Worsening hazards: Climate change is expected to worsen flood hazards (and increasing development in flood-prone areas raises exposure.)
• Exacerbated inequality: Unique aspects of Canadian society can exacerbate inequality in disaster impacts.
• Proactive strategy: Government strategy is shifting from reactive measures to proactive risk reduction (emphasizing mitigation and strategic relocation.)
• Insurance accessibility: Insurance could offer financial coverage and promote risk reduction, but must be affordable and accessible for everyone, including high-risk areas.
• Coverage gap: There's currently a gap in insurance coverage, as it does not effectively cover Canadians in high-risk flood areas.

It's probably a good idea to keep the source text handy. Alice and Ian-the-Intern have worked hard to include only the essentials in this wiki article so sometimes you might need to refer to the source for clarification and/or further explanation. In any case, if you can answer all the quiz questions (and there are a lot of them!) you should be in pretty good shape to answer any exam question they might throw at you.

Estimated study time: several days (not including subsequent review time)

BattleTable

No past exam questions are available for this reading.

reference	part (a)	part (b)	part (c)	part (d)

Full BattleQuiz

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In Plain English!

Section 1: Introduction

6 pages (pages 10-15)

The Task Force on Flood Insurance and Relocation was established to explore solutions for high-risk areas and potential relocation strategies. Their findings provide an evidence-based understanding of flood risk, potential insurance models, and relocation impact for informed decision-making.

Question: Why was the Task Force on Flood Insurance and Relocation established?

• to explore solutions for high-risk areas and potential relocation strategies

(note that the task force prioritized engagement with Indigenous communities)

Question: Identify and briefly describe the 3 types of flooding.

• fluvial (river flooding)

- when the water level in a river, lake or stream rises and overflows onto the neighboring land

• pluvial

- when an extreme rainfall event creates a flood independent of an overflowing water body

• coastal

- when dry and low-lying land is submerged by seawater

In 2019, the federal, provincial, and territorial (FPT) governments approved the Emergency Management Strategy for Canada: Toward a Resilient 2030 (EMS). It is a long term, strategic vision for emergency management.

Question: Identify 5 priority areas for action under EMS (Emergency Management Strategy)

1. Enhance whole-of-society collaboration
2. Improve understanding of disaster risks
3. Increase focus on whole-of-society prevention and mitigation
4. Enhance disaster response capacity
5. Strengthen recovery efforts by building back better to minimize the impacts of future disasters

Notice the underlined phrase: whole-of-society. That phrase is used several times in the source reading and it just means that dealing with floods is not the responsibility a single entity like the federal government – rather, everyone has a role to play including individuals, communities, insurance companies, governments at all levels, as well as non-governmental entities.

Section 1.1 Overview of Flood Risk in Canada

This section defines the term "risk" in the context of disasters and Alice has a hunch that might show up on the exam.

Question: Define the term "risk" in the context of disasters. [Hint: likelihood & consequence]

• disaster risk is the combination of the likelihood and the consequence of a specified hazard being realized

The text then provides a simple example:

• projected increases in extreme precipitation due to climate change may increase the flood hazard by increasing the amount of water expected during flood events
• if this additional flood water is in contact with exposed assets, overall flood risk increases.

They draw a distinction between "hazard" and "risk" and that's the key point to understand. Flooding is a hazard but it doesn't become a risk unless assets like people or property are affected by the hazard.

Section 1.2 Key Drivers of Canada's Flood Risk

Here's another obvious exam question. Memorize the answer!

Question: Identify and briefly describe the key drivers of Canada's flood risk.

• Population growth and urban development:

- urban densification in flood-prone areas contributes to flood risk (70% of Canada's population)

- urban centers are more prone to flood risks due to their location on or near floodplains and coastlines

• Climate change: [Hint: HEAR me now! Or we're all doomed!]

Heat-induced Risks - heat promotes wildfires and droughts, destroying vegetation and increasing runoff

Extreme Precipitation - due to warmer temperatures (creates pluvial risk, especially in urban areas with impermeable surfaces that can't absorb water)

Accelerated Warming - Canada's climate is warming twice as fast as the global rate.

Rising Sea Levels - coastal flooding

Section 1.3 Defining the Problem

Canadians can protect themselves against flood risk by purchasing insurance. Currently however, the private market serves only low and medium risk areas and this creates a "protection gap" because 90% of Canada's flood risk is in high-risk areas.

Before continuing, note that DFA stands for Disaster Financial Assistance. You shouldn't be asked to describe DFA on the exam but you should have a general idea of what it is:

Disaster Financial Assistance (DFA) is a program that provides financial aid to individuals, small businesses, local governments, and nonprofit organizations after a natural disaster. The aid is intended to help cover necessary expenses and serious damage that are not compensated by insurance. This could include repairs to physical damage or help with temporary housing costs. DFA programs are typically funded by the government.

All right, let's move on:

Question: Identify 3 problems pertaining to flood insurance in Canada. [Hint: high-low-misaligned]

• high cost (especially for low-income households)

- recent flood events cause increased premiums and possibly withdrawal of coverage altogether

• low risk awareness

- information about floods, including flood maps, may be unavailable

• misaligned incentives

- taxpayer-funded DFA programs contributes to a moral hazard because people may rely on that instead of buying insurance

The first problem described above, high cost, is easy to understand. The second and third problems require further explanation and I think a good exam question would be to describe those problems more fully.

Question: Fully describe the implications of low risk awareness of flood risks in Canada.

• no coverage: people may not purchase flood insurance if they are not aware of the risk
• no coverage: people may think their standard homeowner's policy covers floods when it doesn't
• insufficient coverage: people who do buy optional flood coverage may have insufficient protection
• insufficient mitigation: people may be less likely to invest in property-level flood protection

Let's now delve a little deeper into the "misaligned incentives" problem.

Question: Fully describe the moral hazards associated with misaligned incentives regarding flood risks in Canada.

• The moral hazards relate to the expectation that governments will provide post-disaster financial assistance regardless of poor decisions by individuals and communities on where to build.

- homeowners: At the homeowner level, DFA doesn't encourage risk reduction or insurance purchase.

- communities: At the community level, local governments & developers, benefit from property sales and tax revenues, but flood recovery costs fall largely on other levels of government.

- regional & national: Cost-sharing of disaster recovery reduces incentivize for risk reduction (which may include expensive infrastructure)

The "moral" of this story, so to speak, is that we all need to work together because any one stakeholder can't carry the full weight of protecting against flood disaster.

Section 1.4 The Task Force on Flood Insurance and Relocation

This section has a lot of detail but I think the only reasonable exam question would be for you to provide a general description of the task force. This was covered earlier in section 1.1, but here's a quick review. The task force was created to:

• explore solutions for high-risk areas and potential relocation strategies

(note that the task force prioritized engagement with Indigenous communities)

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Section 2: Flood Risk Management in Canada

4 pages (pages 15-18)

Traditional ways of managing flood risk involved the government building expensive walls to keep folks and their property safe from floods. However, with floods becoming more frequent and expensive, people worldwide are learning to live with water. This is done through Flood Risk Management (FRM), which shares the responsibility of dealing with floods across many parties and promotes the use of non-structural methods. In Canada, where there are various layers of government with different roles, FRM becomes a complex process that involves a whole range of people and organizations and is continually adapting to risk.

Question: Briefly describe the concept of FRM (Flood Risk Managemet)

• an alternative approach to conventional flood control measures
• promotes the use of non-structural mitigation measures to complement and enhance other types of mitigation
• stakeholders include: government, industry, communities, non-government organizations, individuals
• an iterative process of: acting, monitoring, reviewing, adapting

Section 2.1 Roles and Responsibilities for Flood Risk Management

Alice's Pro-Tip: Roles & Responsibilities is a likely exam question!

There is a lot of important information here on roles and responsibilities regarding various stakeholders in the FRM paradigm. Alice thinks the best way to present it is in a table. You basically just have to memorize enough to be able to answer a question about roles & responsibilities of various stakeholders. The distinction between roles and responsibilities seems arbitrary but Alice has separated them as well as she could based on the source text. In general, the term role refers to a broad function, and responsibility refers to a specific task or duty.

In any case, I don't think it's reasonable to expect anyone to memorize this whole table so Alice has kindly highlighted in yellow and blue what she thinks is probably sufficient to memorize from this table. She selected 2 bullet for each stakeholder so that gives you 14 items to memorize. Not too bad!

Stakeholder	Roles	Responsibilities
Federal Government	support provincial/local efforts to mitigate/manage flood emergencies (this is done through EMA or Emergency Management Act)	leadership monitor emergencies financial assistance
Provincial/ Territorial Government (PT)	regulate insurers implement land use & flood risk management policies	make infrastructure investments develop flood maps coordinate emergency response within borders
Municipal Government	collaborate with PT governments to identify flood risks implement incentives: subsidies, rebates, risk-based surcharges lead local response and recovery during emergencies	enforce local construction and land-use by-laws invest in structural and non-structural flood mitigation balance land-use planning with maximizing tax revenue
Indigenous Communities	develop community emergency management plans coordinate with all other stakeholders	addres unique challenges (geography, social/cultural) particularly in northern and remote communities ensure that emergency management plans are implemented and maintained
Insurance Industry	provide flood insurance data collection, research, public outreach (regarding flood risk) work with all stakeholders to address flood resilience	offer overland flood endorsements (fluvial, pluvial flooding) (coverage for coastal flooding remains limited however) incentivize policyholders to engage in risk reduction (shift economic recovery burden away from DFA)
Non-Governmental Organizations	act as initial responders during flood incidents	coordinate volunteers in recovery efforts
Communities & Individuals	seek information to understand their property's flood risk take action in flood-prone areas to contribute to their community's overall resiliency pay taxes to support governmental relief	purchase flood insurance cover their own uninsured losses

The last item from section 2.1 is something that has been asked in some form on multiple previous exams. Learn it!

Question: Identify the necessary preconditions for success of a private flood insurance market. [Hint: PAIL]

• Public awareness of flood risk
• Accurate & up-to-date flood mapping
• Investments in public and private flood defenses
• Limit post-disaster financial assistance from the government to encourage flood mitigation investments

Did you understand Ian-the-Intern's clever hint?

→ If you don't have good flood risk management then you will have to use a pail to get rid of the water from your basement!

Ha ha! He thinks he's funny. (I'm glad someone does.)

Section 2.2 Impact of Risk Reduction

This section covers a few risk reduction strategies that different stakeholders can implement. Recall from the introduction that a "whole-of-society" approach to FRM (Flood Risk Management) is required, rather than relying solely on a single entity like the federal government.

Question: Identify prevention and mitigation measures an individual household can implement. [benefit-to-cost: 11:1]

• installing a backwater valve
• having a basement sump pump
• maintaining appropriate lot grading
• clearing eaves troughs and extending downspouts

Alice thinks the above question has a low probability of being on the exam. Her personal favourite item from the list is "maintaining appropriate lot grading". Pick your own favourite and memorize it. You don't need to memorize all 4. I found it interesting that the benefit-to-cost ration for individual mitigation measures is 11:1. That's pretty darn good!

Community flood mitigation efforts can reduce flood risk on a larger scale since these efforts affect a whole community. The text states the benefit-to-cost ratio is 6:1, not quite as good as individual mitigation measures but if individual and community mitigation efforts are combined, the risk reduction will be very significant.

Question: Identify prevention and mitigation measures a community can implement. [benefit-to-cost: 6:1]

• adopt climate-resilient best practices for: regulations, land use, urban planning, development
• upgrade infrastructure
• invest in natural infrastructure

Important observation: These mitigation measures can lower insurance premiums (if premiums are risk-based)

Question: Identify prevention and mitigation measures that can be implemented on a national level. [benefit-to-cost: 7:1]

• stricter building codes
• improved flood risk information
• investments in climate resilience (Ex: infrastructure resilience, environmental resilience)
• funding for watershed level mitigation projects

Note: A watershed is an area of land that drains all the streams and rainfall into a common outlet such as the mouth of a bay, or any point along a stream channel. An example of a watershed mitigation project is restoration of wetlands (which naturally absorb and store excess water) to prevent flooding downstream.

Over the past decade, municipal, provincial, and territorial governments in Canada have increasingly pursued strategic relocation.

Question: Describe the concept of strategic relocation. [Hint: BRRR - cold - the opposite of global warming 😏]

• Buy a high-risk property (government is often the buyer)
• Remove assets from high-risk property
• Restore site to undeveloped state
• Repurpose site as green infrastructure to better absorb floodwater (further reduces flood risk)

Note that in the past, strategic relocation had usually been done after a disaster. This is reactive rather than proactive. There is opportunity for strategic relocation to be more effective if it is done proactively before a disaster.

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Section 3: Flood Hazard and Damages in Canada

8 pages (pages 18-25)

As a foundational step in their analysis, the Task Force developed a detailed analysis of the total cost of residential flooding in Canada.

Section 3.1 Methodology for Estimating Flood Damages

Note that PS stands for Public Safety of Canada, and the methodology for estimating flood damages is called the "PS Approach". In broad terms, the model has 3 inputs and 1 output:

Inputs:

• flood hazard

→ extent / magnitude / probability of occurrence

• exposure

→ people / infrastructure / property

• consequence

→ floodwater damage

Outputs:

• risk

→ predicted loss of people / infrastructure / property

→ average annual loss (AAL) from flooding

→ return-period level losses for residential properties in Canada

For example, a 100-year return period for a flood means that the flood level has a 1% chance of being equaled or exceeded in any single year. So, "return-period level losses" means the estimated losses from a flood event with a particular return period.

The source text discusses details for each of the 3 inputs and here's what Alice thinks you should know:

Question: Briefly discuss the methodology for estimating flood hazards.

• Canada has 2 types of flood hazard information:

→ local regulatory flood mapping

→ broad-coverage models mainly used by insurance firms

• Regulatory mapping is very accurate but available only in select areas
• Broad-coverage models provide nationwide data (including flood depths for standard return periods and diverse flood types)

If you get an exam question that asks for 3 advantages of broad-coverage models, just refer to the last bullet point above:

1. nationwide coverage
2. provides flood depths for standard return periods
3. captures different flood types of fluvial, pluvial and coastal

Let's now move on to the next absolutely fascinating aspect of estimating flood losses.

Question: Briefly discuss the methodology for estimating flood exposure.

• requires a comprehensive residential properties database (on the "block" level of 20-30 properties)
• requires building attributes, informed risk and flood susceptibility
• dataset was further broken down to individual households for consequence estimation

And the last input parameter...

Question: Briefly discuss the methodology for estimating consequences (or flood damages).

• relate flood depths in the models to estimated flood losses of residential properties
• this is done using depth-damage models

Section 3.2 Results of Flood Damage in Canada

This section in the source text shows outputs from the flood models but there really isn't anything that can be asked about those. It's just a bunch of tables and graphs. Still, it might be worth spending 5 minutes looking through them. (Good bedtime reading!)

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Section 5: Building Policy Options for Canada

4 pages (pages 29-32)

The task force studied flood insurance models in other countries (Section 5.1) relative to defined policy objectives (Section 5.3). Section 5.2 discusses insights gleaned from other countries and Section 5.4 lists potential insurance models for Canada.

Section 5.1 International Examples of Flood Insurance Solutions

You should take 5-10 to read through this section ot get a general idea of how flood insurance works in these 4 different countries. The mini-BattleQuiz then has more concise bullet-point descriptions that you can memorize.

International flood insurance models can be understood in terms of these design characteristics:

Design Characteristic	Options
Administration	Role of Government versus Role of Private Insurers
Choice	Voluntary or Compulsory
Packaging	Standalone Product or Bundled with Other Perils
Premiums	Risk-based or Uniform Pricing

We'll now evaluate the flood insurance program in each of the given countries according to these design characteristics:

Australia	Options
Administration	The Australian government takes on regulatory roles in the flood insurance industry and has established a standardized definition of flood for insurance purposes to ensure clarity for insurers and insured parties. The government also encourages retrofits and promotes private partnerships for flood risk management, shouldering very low costs itself.
Choice	The offering and uptake of flood insurance in Australia is voluntary. Insurance availability can vary, particularly for regions with medium to extreme flood risk where it may not be universally available.
Packaging	The comprehensiveness of flood coverage and specific flood-related perils included vary by insurer. For areas with little to no flood risk, policies often include coverage at minimal cost.
Premiums	The insurance premiums charged are risk-adjusted and not regulated or subsidized by the government. They can be particularly high for properties at highest risk. Despite this, insurers are recognizing the benefits of retrofits in their premium calculations.

France	Options
Administration	France operates the Catastrophe Naturelle (CatNat) scheme which covers losses associated with large-scale natural disasters including floods. The scheme is supported by the Caisse Centrale de Réassurance (CCR), a state-owned facility that reinsures the insurers. Local governments are encouraged to adopt a Plan de Prévention des Risques (PPR) to reduce hazard exposure and vulnerability. The criteria for an extreme disaster triggering full CCR coverage lack explicitness, potentially leading to administrative inconsistencies.
Choice	Purchase of home insurance, and consequently flood coverage through the CatNat scheme, is legally required for property owners with a mortgage. For those owning their property outright, it's optional.
Packaging	The CatNat is an extension to private insurance and automatically added to all property insurance contracts. It covers a range of natural disaster perils, including flood. The deductible for the CatNat coverage is lower for communities with an approved PPR.
Premiums	A uniform 12% surcharge is applied on home insurance policies to cover natural disaster perils, regardless of individual risk. The surcharge equates to about €30 per year on top of the average premium for a basic property insurance contract. The flat levy doesn't incentivize property-level mitigation, although a reduction in deductibles for communities with a PPR can promote risk reduction.

United Kingdom	Options
Administration	Flood Re, a not-for-profit entity operated by the private sector, administers the UK's flood insurance pool and is accountable to the government. The government provides oversight, sets the level of affordability caps, and is tasked with implementing mitigation measures to reduce overall flood risk. This arrangement is designed to be in place until 2039, with the expectation that properties would be sufficiently de-risked by then to transition towards affordable risk-reflective pricing.
Choice	Insurance is available to most high-risk properties, excluding those built after 2009. The high availability, combined with affordability caps and automatic bundling in homeowners' policies, results in a high level of take-up.
Packaging	Flood coverage is bundled with homeowner's policies and provided by private insurers. The flood portion of the residential property insurance policies is ceded to the high-risk reinsurance pool, Flood Re, when premiums exceed a pre-determined affordability cap.
Premiums	Premiums are not highly reflective of risk, as the system prioritizes affordability. Premium caps are tied to home values indicated by council tax bands. To top up the pool, a levy is passed on to all residential policies, totaling £10.50 per policyholder per year. This system can be seen as inequitable, as wealthy, high-value property owners may appear to be subsidized by the broader population. The risk reduction at the property level is somewhat limited due to the lack of a price signal from subsidized premiums.

United States	Options
Administration	The National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP), operated by the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), primarily administers flood insurance in the United States. The federal government underwrites the risk of insurance policies sold. Private insurers participate in various roles, such as adjusting, writing, selling, and settling policies for the NFIP, for which they are paid a fee.
Choice	Flood insurance is sold separately from homeowner insurance. It is mandatory for individuals with a federally-backed mortgage in designated flood-prone areas, and voluntary for those living outside these areas.
Packaging	Flood insurance is not bundled with other homeowner insurance policies but sold as a standalone product. FEMA operates a Community Rating System program to incentivize communities to voluntarily implement risk-reduction measures. Communities that participate are eligible for premium discounts that lower the cost of insurance for homes within their boundaries.
Premiums	Premiums are risk-based in principle, determined using rate maps developed by the government. Previously subsidized flood policies have been grandfathered into the current risk-based system. However, from 2021 onwards, these grandfathered policies will see their premiums increase over time to reflect the actual flood risk being covered. The cost of NFIP policies is about 1.8% of the average household disposable income, but this could change as older policies transition to reflect true risk. The NFIP's cost to the federal government has been high due to the deep unfunded historical discounts provided.

Section 5.2 Guiding Insights for Canada

Alice thinks the person who wrote section 5.2 in this reading deserves a failing grade. It's just a bullet point list with no real explanation. Alice had added some of her own comments in red to try to make sense of it.

According to the text:

• 12 considerations were identified under 4 themes to help guide the development of policy options for Canada

An incredibly obvious exam question is simply to ask you to identify these considerations. Now, you likely wouldn't be asked to list all 12, but you might be asked to list 4, and you should make sure you select 1 item from each theme. Alice has selected 1 item from each theme below. (If you want to know the other items from each theme, please refer to the source text.)

Theme 1: Uncertainty  ← minimize this

• invest in risk reduction in high-risk areas to expand insurability

Theme 2: Market penetration, adverse selection and mutuality  ← MAXIMIZE market penetration & minimize adverse selection

• incentivize (or require) the purchase of flood insurance through bundling of flood coverage with other perils

Theme 3: Affordability  ← design for affordability (or uptake of flood insurance will be low, especially for high-risk areas)

• prioritize means-testing to guide any public subsidy to households for flood insurance affordability
• but eventual goal is risk-based rates for everyone (by diverting land-use development away from high-risk locations)

Theme 4: Moral Hazard  ← minimize this

• implement minimum deductibles and avoid incentivizing new development in high-risk areas

Again, just memorize the above points. 😧

Section 5.3 Policy Objectives for Flood Insurance

This short section has lots of overlap with the previous section but isn't exactly the same.

The Task Force used 12 insights to shape public policy goals for flood insurance. These goals act as the roadmap to design models, and help assess their feasibility. Simply put, while a national flood insurance program is the end result, these goals are the building blocks. All of these goals are important, but we might need to prioritize some over others, making it a tricky balancing act.

An obvious exam question is to describe these goals. There are 6 altogether so a typical exam question might ask you for 2 or 3. This is a very important table, so I've included it below. Alice and Ian then put their heads together to conceptualize the information in such a way as to make it easier to memorize. (See below the table.)

Ok, let's try to make sense of this table:

Notice that each item in the column on the left has words in bold:

• adequate & predictable (compensation)
• risk-informed price signals
• affordable
• available
• maximize participation
• value for money

When you pull out these key words like this, it suddenly doesn't seem so hard! 😃 But we can make it even simpler by rearranging them and changing the wording slightly. Notice that 3 of them begin with the letter "a" so let's group those together:

• Adequate & predictable (compensation)
• Affordable
• Available
• Participation (maximize)
• Risk-based pricing
• Value

So the memory trick for this might be: Triple-A + PRV. It's the baseball hint, but not the major leagues, just Triple-A. Still pretty good!

Ok, now you have to be able to give a little bit of an explanation, which is what's in the column on the right. I don't think you need to memorize much here because at this stage in your actuarial career, most of it is general knowledge.

• Adequate & predictable financial compensation is self-explanatory
• Affordable is obvious as a desired characteristic, and it dovetails with maximizing Participation (a lower price means more people will buy it)
• Available for all types of floods (fluvial, pluvial, coastal) and in all geographic areas for all risk-levels
• Risk-based pricing is also obvious because this incentives risk reduction and minimizes moral hazards
• Value for money is also obvious – we don't want people not buying insurance and not taking steps to mitigate risk, which might happen if they think they can always rely on DFA (Disaster Financial Assistance) to compensate them after a big flood

So take a quick look at the right-hand column of the table, just so you know what's there, and make sure you can give a brief explanation to go with each of the 6 policy goals. In effect, all you have to memorize is the baseball hint: Triple-A + PRV. Totes fun!

Section 5.4 Insurance Models for Canada

Section 5.4 simply lists the 4 conceptual models selected for actuarial analysis. They are:

1. Flat Cap High-Risk Pool
2. Tiered High-Risk Pool
3. Public Insurance
4. Public Reinsurance (Layered)

They are discussed in detail in the next chapter.

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Section 6: Results of Model Analysis

13 pages (pages 32-44)

The 4 models chosen for the actuarial analysis illustrate different ways to structure risk-sharing arrangements. They're designed to show how specific features impact the overall program. The parameters in each model serve as examples of costs and trade-offs between models.

Section 6.1 Assumptions

The source text lists 5 assumptions as outlined in the table below. Keep these in mind as you read the remainder of this chapter.

Category of Assumption	Assumption
Total Flood Risk	2.9 billion annual residential flood damage
Organizational Start-Up Costs	not included (but on-going operational and maintenance expenses are included)
Lifespan of Model	25 years
Climate Change	not considered (levels of risk are set to flood hazard models as of 2020)
Inflation	not considered (difficult to predict but all models should be affected the same way anyway)

These assumptions are actually very simple and you should definitely memorize them.

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Section 6.2 Insurance Model Design Features

WARNING: The terminology used in this section is a bit confusing: In Section 5.1 International Examples of Flood Insurance Solutions, we covered "Design Characteristics" of flood insurance models, but here in Section 6.2, they talk about "Design Features". Now, "Design Characteristics" and "Design Features" sound like the same thing but they are not, as you will see below.

On my first pass through this section, I made bullet point summaries. I didn't spend too long however because it looks like the really important information is in the next section and this section is just background information. My summary bullet points are organized into the table below for easy reference.

Recommended Study Strategy: Spend a few minutes reading through the table below, then answer the quiz questions. The quiz questions are pretty easy if you have a general understanding of the issues.

Design Feature	Description
Threshold for "high risk homeowners"	"High risk homeowners" are in the top 10% risk, determined by Annual Average Loss or premiums exceeding 0.1% of coverage. (Ex: Premiums ≥ $300 for $300,000 of coverage) This global standard covers ~ 10% of households. Private markets should cover the lower-risk 90%.
Affordability	Affordability is measured by the ratio of premiums to household wealth (or income.) Home value represents ~ 70% of household wealth and can indicate wealth, while or income reflects capacity to pay. Affordability strategies include premium caps and income-based subsidies (increases uptake, supports lower-income households) → Caps may phase out with a shift to risk-based pricing (providing time for mitigation or relocation) → Subsidies decrease as income increases
Premium Loading Factors	True premium cost involves a loading factor applied to the Average Annual Loss (AAL). This factor covers: [1] administrative and operational costs [2] risk buffers [3] living expenses (Models use unique loading factors, assuming zero profit margin.)
Cross Subsidization	Cross subsidization transfers some premium costs from high-risk to low-risk homeowners. A $20-$45 levy on all homeowners generates an extra $250-650 million annually, reducing government funding. Levels of cross-subsidies are adjustable according to various operational considerations.
Deductibles	Deductibles are set at $5,000 (influences risk reduction incentives) High deductibles may reduce participation (optimal amount of deductible still being studied)
Participation	Participation rates are low without mandatory requirements (Ex: Canada is 40-60% mostly in low-medium risk areas) Low participation increases premiums and homeowners' flood risk. Residual risk1 burdens uninsured or underinsured homeowners. With improved awareness and affordability, participation rates could increase by 15%.
Standardization of Flood Insurance Policies	Greater government involvement → more standardized policies. Standardization can: [1] simplify policy language [2] unify coverage types [3] bundle different perils for clarity. Insurers can voluntarily standardize products but this is more likely with government involvement.
Automatic Ceding of Flood Policies	3 out of the 4 models involve transferring risk to high-risk pools. High-risk flood coverage is assumed to be automatically ceded by insurers.

¹ Residual Risk is the amount of financial risk left in the system once insurance options have been applied.

(In moving from public DFA programs funded by all taxpayers to an insurance-based system, it is important to understand how much residual risk exists in each model, as these costs would fall on the shoulders of homeowners who are either uninsured or underinsured.)

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Section 6.3 Insurance Models for Actuarial Costing

Recall the 4 flood insurance models from Section 5.4 Insurance Models for Canada:

1. Flat Cap High-Risk Pool
2. Tiered High-Risk Pool
3. Public Insurance
4. Public Reinsurance (Layered)

Study Strategy: Before jumping into this section, let's take a step back and think about how to approach it. I scanned this section from source text and I could see there was a lot of factual information – too much for my brain to absorb simply by reading it. So here are 2 things I want to be able to do: Briefly describe each of the 4 models. ← this is the easier task because you can focus on 1 model at a time Be able to state the material differences between the 4 models. ← this is the harder task because you have to synthesize facts from all 4 models You should definitely look at the source text for this section as well as the next section because there are a lot of graphs. → I could imagine an exam question where they give you a graph and ask you to interpret it so you should be familiar with them.

So let's get started...

Flat Cap High Risk Pool

The first sentence in the source text has important information that you should memorize. The flat cap high risk pool is:

• a high risk pool
• with minimal intervention by government
• but with low premium cap ($500) & significant support from government

Next, there is a table (reproduced below) that lists further characteristics of the flat cap model according to the design features discussed in Section 6.2 Insurance Model Design Features.

Memorize the highlighted items from this table. (I don't think you need to memorize specific dollar amounts, although you might remember certain values like the flat cap of $500 just by scanning it once.

I did the same thing for the other 3 models and put the information in the mini BattleQuiz. Hint: Keep the source text handy when you do the quiz.

Section 6.4 Actuarial Results of Four Models

This section is mainly graphs, with some discussion, and the best thing you can do is refer to source text and spend maybe 20-30 minutes going over the graphs. There isn't much you can memorize here, but just make sure you understand how to interpret the graphs. It's mainly common sense. I could see an exam question giving you one of these graphs and asking you to provide comments.

There's also a summary at the very end that makes the following points:

• Flat Cap and Tiered High-Risk pool models require less funding from all sources

→ but there remains a significant amount of residual risk.

→ If a large-scale flood occurs, many homeowners will be at risk, with governments facing significant pressure to provide relief.

• Public Insurer model is most costly to governments in absolute terms

→ but cost per-capita basis for high-risk households is reasonable

• Public Reinsurer (layered insurance) has several advantages:

→ provides flexibility in its purchase offer

→ provides strong risk reduction incentives to homeowners

→ requires reduced funding but retains good coverage for major events

Section 6.5 The Effect of Risk Reduction

This is a short section, and Alice has kindly summarized it for you. (You're welcome!)

Question: Identify reasons that the costs of flood risk may increase over time.

• inflation
• climate change (increasies flooding frequency and severity)
• population growth in flood-prone areas

Question: Briefly describe 2 potential flood de-risking measures.

1. restrict eligibility for the highest-risk homeowners

   • reduces costs
   • but leaves many homeowners unprotected → requires significant government spending in a catastrophe

2. strategic relocation

   • reduces costs
   • but is potentially disruptive & lengthy

mini BattleQuiz 7

Section 7: Discussion

7 pages (pages 44-50)

There's a lot of detail in chapter but they there's a really nice summary table at the end which Ian-the-Intern reproduced below with color-coding. He also added explanations. (You're welcome!)

The purpose of this chapter is to compare the 4 flood insurance models according to the policy objectives. In the table further down:

• red = weak in that category
• tan = average in that category
• green = strong in that category

Ian-the-Intern made notes on the weak and the strong categories. You have to find a way to remember those, whether by straight-up memorizing or by understanding the models well enough so that the reasons just make sense (or a combination.) For the average categories, you just have to make something up if necessary. You can read the descriptions provided in the source but I think there is already too much to memorize here. If it comes up on the exam, just take an educated guess based on your knowledge of the models.

Policy Objective	Flat Cap High-Risk Pool	Tiered High-Risk Pool	Public Insurer	Public Reinsurer
Adequacy/Predictability of Compensation			• comprehensive coverage • minimized post-disaster impacts	• guarantees adequate coverage • standardized coverage
Risk Reduction				• balances homeowner and government mitigation incentives • encourages individual and community-level risk reduction strategies
Affordability	• single low premium cap		• a single higher premium cap to reduce the most excessive costs • means-tested subsidies
Availability	Canada-wide coverage	Canada-wide coverage	Canada-wide coverage	Canada-wide coverage
Participation	Residual Risk high		andatory bundling • minimizes Residual risk	andatory bundling • intermediate Residual risk
Value for Money	Expensive for government.		• higher but predictable cost • encourages risk-based pricing & mitigation efforts	• balances government funding with Residual risk • promotes move to risk-based pricing."

Section 8: Key Findings

2 pages (pages 50-51)

Chapter 8 is the last chapter you have to study and it's a pretty good summary of the key findings of the task. The discussion is divided into 4 categories:

Current Flood Risk

Insurance Considerations

Relocation Considerations

Equity Considerations

The order in which these categories are listed is logical but to help me remember them, I changed the order slightly. The first letter of each category below now spells RICE and rice paddies often look like they're flooded. So that's the memory trick. The categories of key finds for flood risk are RICE.

Categories of Key Findings: (reordered) Relocation Considerations Insurance Considerations Current Flood Risk Equity Considerations

Now, each of these 4 categories have their own separate bullet points that can be summarized as follows:

Relocation Considerations

• Relocation is a powerful but potentially disruptive risk removal tool.
• If relocation isn't possible, then "in-place" mitigation measures can be applied.
• In either case, these measures must be informed at the community level.

Insurance Considerations

• Many homeowners don't understand what's covered and what isn't covered regarding floods so standardization of policy language is important in addressing this.
• Maximizing participation in an insurance program is key because it spreads the risk across a broad population of homeowners of low, medium, and high risk.
• Public intervention can close coverage gaps, but at a cost. (The only way to reduce costs is to remove risks.

Current Flood Risk

• Total flood risk is currently estimated at 2.9 billion (which was one of the model assumptions from Section 6.1 Assumptions.)

(Note that about 1/3 of this total is concentrated in only the top 1% riskiest homes.)

Equity Considerations

• Affordability is key for equitable access among socio-economically disadvantaged groups requiring support.
• Education is key so that homeowners understand the risks and costs of floods and will take steps to remove or mitigate risk.
• Cultural connections of Indigenous peoples to water and land must be respected.

Alice's Pro Tip! If you get an exam question asking you for the key findings of the Flood Task Force, make sure to mention each category and then at least 1 point within each category. If you list 2 items from the same category, the graders sometimes won't give you credit for the second item. They seem to prefer items that are distinct from each other. (You probably don't have to memorize everything within each category - just 1 item for each should be enough.)

mini BattleQuiz 8

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